The receding tide of oil price foreshadows the incoming DEFLATION TSUNAMI.
Contrary to the main stream message that all is well with our new oil supply glut, the falling price of oil exposes the current fragility of the global economy.
Nothing grows indefinitely in a finite system, not even debt!
Almost all (90%) of ‘money’
in existence today is debt (credit)[i].
This debt is created from thin air with every form of loan, from credit cards,
through corporate debt to Treasury Notes. All this debt comes with an interest
component that demands never ending growth in order to repay it. Again, the current monetary system REQUIRES that
we have never ending economic growth.
It is one massive pyramid scheme because, if we ever stop
growing, who is paying the interest?
Total U.S. debt has soared over the last 35
years:
Debts are claims on future
goods and services with interest and are essentially a bet that the future
economy will be bigger than the present.
However:
The economy is the
summation of all goods and services and these are produced from work.
High order energy is
required for work.[ii]
Oil is the master high
order energy resource powering 95% of transport in our trade based economic
paradigm.[iii]
Therefore
increasing debts are, in part, a bet that oil production will increase
indefinitely.
But NOTHING grows
indefinitely in a finite system!
World conventional oil production
(blue) has been on a bumpy plateau since 2005.[iv]
And
the economy, which is derived from work, from high
order energy, to service that exponential debt, has been constrained by the bumpy plateau of conventional oil since
2005.
What
happens when we can no longer service the growing debt with real economic growth?
The great recession
happens. Without real growth, central banks desperately print money (more debt)
by the trillions and hold interest rates close to zero (Q.E.), in an attempt to
heist future growth and to ease the pain of the existing debt. But prescribing
more debt to cure debt only digs the hole deeper and means that even more real growth is required
(read: more work, more energy).
The world is now absolutely
loaded up to the eyeballs with debt, after every sector and every asset class of
the economy has been force fed to the point of glutinous bursting[v].
Newly printed debt produces less and less growth as credit intensity increases.[vi]
And
what happens when the central banks policies cannot reduce interest rate
further and the newly created debt does not increase real goods and services?
This is when deflation
wins and this is where we are.[vii]
Without ongoing real growth,
the exponential power of existing debt erodes the purchasing power of participants
in the global economy. With fewer discretionary dollars to spend into the
economy, a self-feeding loop of demand destruction ensues. Demand for real
goods and services falls.
Demand
for commodities, the primary resources that produce the
real goods and services of the economy, is
now falling:
A recent zero-hedge
article notes that commodities are now experiencing a “Depression-Level
Collapse in Demand”[viii]
Bloomberg: “Iron Ore Slumps to Five-Year Low as China
Slowdown Curbs Demand”[ix]
Sydney Morning Herald “Glencore, the world's fourth largest
mining company and world's biggest commodity trader, will suspend its
Australian coal business for three weeks "in a move never before seen in the Australian market, to avoid pumping tons
into a heavily oversupplied market at depressed prices." [x]
Bloomberg: “Jiangxi Copper Profit Falls as Slowing
China Growth Curbs Demand”[xi]
Fox:
“IEA Cuts Demand Outlook, Oil Continues
Drop”[xii]
Now
back to the master commodity, oil.
Demand for oil, the
primary energy component of the global economy, has always been highly
correlated to GDP[xiii]:
In
our economy of false signals, (Central Bank inflated
stocks, a Quantitative Eased Bond Market, mind-numbingly exotic derivatives, quirky
University of Michigan numbers, manipulated CPIs, arbitrary debt ceilings, smashed
VIXs , etc. etc.) OIL is screaming the
truth.
Price is falling because demand is falling because the real economy is contracting.
Deflation is coming and The Pyramid Scheme of Our Age is about to unravel.
When
the oil tide recedes, prepare for the crash of the GREAT DEFLATION TSUMANI.
[i] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_creation
[ii] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_%28physics%29
[iii] http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/why-clean-cars/oil-use#.VJINxCvF-tY
[iv] http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-04-13/did-crude-oil-production-actually-peak-in-2005
[v] http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=7
[vi] http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-22/larry-summers-is-on-to-something
[vii] http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/89523/deflation-winning
[viii]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-14/depression-level-collapse-demand-historic-first-glencore-shuts-coal-mines-3-weeks
[ix] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/iron-ore-slumps-to-five-year-low-as-china-slowdown-curbs-demand.html
[x] http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/glencore-shuts-down-coal-mines-for-three-weeks-20141114-11mhp2.html
[xi] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-28/jiangxi-copper-profit-falls-as-slowing-china-growth-curbs-demand.html
[xii] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/12/12/iea-cuts-demand-outlook-oil-continues-drop/
[xiii]
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/frank-talk/the-strong-link-between-gdp-and-oil-consumption/#.VJIR3CvF-tY